Public revenue estimates and confidence signals for tracked finance newsletters.
| Rank | Publication | MRR | ARR | MoM |
|---|
Deep dives/analyses of the technology companies and tech sub-industries. Mostly about AI, semiconductor, cloud, software, and ad tech sectors.
Earnings Estimates (Gross MRR)
$10KMidpoint (best estimate)Subscriber Composition
2%PaidRevenue Estimates (Gross MRR)
$10KRange $3.3K – $33.2KJun 13 - Jun 14
Subscriber Count
19KJun 13 - Jun 14
Publish Cadence
0.7Per weekJun 13 - Jun 14
Paid Content Mix
67%Jun 13 - Jun 14
Median Engagement Per Post
Median 30 reactions / 2 comments per recent post
Estimate Summary
UncoverAlpha is estimated from the public paid-audience bucket "Hundreds of paid subscribers" and regular web subscription prices. finance-v1 uses a 30% monthly / 70% annual mix and reports gross MRR before any discounts, fees, taxes, refunds, churn, or comp adjustments. The base/high paid-subscriber estimates are sanity-capped against the visible free subscriber count.
Recent Posts
Software optimization techniques for lowering HBM usage and give my estimates on how much of that optimization is already captured, how much reduction these optimizations could still offer, hardware angles from SRAM accelerators like Groq and Cerebras, as well as the decode and prefill split up of hardware, and what that opens up.
It’s a thesis about where the money in AI actually goes once we transition to scaled-up AI workloads and how that might look different from today’s expectations.
The real moat that the frontier labs are building right now is not the model. It is the harness around the model and the cost of serving the model.
In this article, I want to walk through why I think the market is making one of its bigger mistakes of this cycle with Meta. The stock is down roughly 24% from its high of $796.25, trading around $602, with a forward P/E of 19x — well below its 10-year average of around 26-27x and below the S&P 500 multiple. The dominant narrative is that Meta is “spending too much” on AI data centers without a clear path to monetization.
I argued that the market was wrong to punish big tech for raising CapEx because the returns on the 2023-2024 spend were already showing up in the P&L. This quarter, that argument got significantly stronger. Margins on cloud businesses expanded again, the core ad businesses at Meta and Google went into a higher gear
For this report, I covered cloud providers Google, Microsoft, and Amazon in terms of their cloud business, and some insightful signals on Microsoft Copilot, which is a pressure point for Microsoft.
I break down some significant fundamental shifts when it comes to AI efforts from Amazon and Meta, and why I think both are the next two big AI beneficiaries. Based on what we are seeing, both companies are on a path to reaccelerating their efforts, while still perceived by the market as “AI laggards”. We believe this premise will be proven wrong in the coming months.
There are four interconnected themes I want to walk through today, and they all converge on a single conclusion: the era of subsidizing AI model usage is coming to an end.
At The Transcript, we read dozens of earnings call transcripts each week and take note of interesting and important quotes from management about the economy and industry trends. The best and most important quotes are compiled in The Transcript, our weekly
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