Oil prices are learning heavily on admin rhetoric to price high confidence of a near-term deal even as the actual flow of barrels out of the gulf is becoming increasingly constrained.

Limited reduction in crude inventories globally suggest that the oil supply cuts have been absorbed by an extraordinary reduction in demand. Much more likely its China’s obfuscated inventory cuts.

While intervention on its own rarely changes the trajectory of exchange rate markets, conditions are aligning to support the JPY here and the Treasury & MoF efforts are a kickstart to grind higher.